Since the arrival of Oligui Nguema: An economy on the brink of collapse. Is this just the beginning?

Since the coup d'état that brought General Brice Oligui Nguema to power, Gabon has been going through an unprecedented economic crisis. While the economy was already weakened under the Bongo regime, the financial situation is rapidly deteriorating with a budget deficit that is widening by the day. Tax and customs revenues, essential for maintaining public finances, are in free fall. Meanwhile, public debt continues to climb, putting unsustainable pressure on the transitional government.

IMF increasingly concerned about economic crisis in Gabon

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a recent report , expressed deep concerns about the country's economic management. Although General Oligui Nguema has promised reforms to restore investor confidence, the expected results are not materializing. The IMF cites several factors contributing to the current crisis : inefficient tax collection, a dramatic decline in customs revenues, and poor public management. Public debt is reaching alarming levels, plunging Gabon into a debt spiral that may require increased recourse to the IMF.

At the same time, recent articles from Financial Afrik and Le Monde highlight the extent of this economic crisis which is getting worse by the day.

A president out of step with economic reality

Despite the seriousness of the situation, Oligui Nguema's government does not seem to show any signs of concern. The transitional president continues to multiply lavish spending, notably with the purchase of private planes, as highlighted in a report by Le Monde . This disconnect with the economic realities of the country , where the prices of basic necessities are soaring and salary delays are increasing, is beginning to generate growing social anger.

We have also covered similar topics in our article on excessive spending and public management under the transition . The criticism of the lack of economic reforms is a constant that can be found in several analyses.

An uncertain future for Gabon

Gabon seems to be heading straight for a financial impasse. The CFA franc is losing its value, increasing the cost of imports. According to Mediapart and financial analyses relayed on Twitter by TYSUNG , if deep economic reforms are not adopted, the country could be forced to ask for new financial support from the IMF, with even stricter austerity conditions. This could risk provoking popular discontent and further destabilizing the political transition underway with the upcoming Constitutional Referendum.

Despite this worrying situation, President Oligui continues to post images of his travels around the world on social media, while minimizing the economic challenges facing the country. Gabon's economy is collapsing, democracy is slow to come, but on the transition side, everything seems to be happening in apparent tranquility.

🥴🥱 #Gabon pic.twitter.com/EZO5OUL7kz

— TYSUNG (@TYSUNG7) October 6, 2024

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