Constitution quietly amended - Scenario and simulation within the framework of an agreement with the USA

The discreet modification of the Gabonese Constitution opens the way to strategic political maneuvers, illustrated by scenarios. This hypothetical, but realistic, case demonstrates how targeted changes can neutralize counter-powers and consolidate a regime in search of international legitimacy and internal control.

Scenario and general context

Gabon, strategically located on the west coast of Central Africa, is identified by the United States as a key partner to establish a military base. This installation, justified by objectives of the fight against terrorism and regional security, also interests Brice Oligui Nguema. In a context of political transition, this agreement represents an opportunity for him to strengthen his power, guarantee international support, and neutralize internal opponents. Thanks to recent constitutional amendments, he can orchestrate this project smoothly by circumventing the constraints of the initial text.

Step 1: Negotiation of the international agreement (Article 164)

Scenario

Brice Oligui Nguema begins discreet negotiations with the United States. These talks highlight regional instability, particularly piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, and the need for a US military presence to guarantee security. In return, Washington offers financial aid, diplomatic support, and direct military assistance. The agreement includes clauses allowing US forces broad autonomy on Gabonese territory, but these sensitive provisions are deliberately kept secret.

● With the modified text:

○ The reference to Article 162 places the responsibility for ratifying the agreement on Parliament, bypassing the control of the Constitutional Court provided for in Article 165 of the initial text.

○ The agreement can be negotiated and concluded by the Executive without a thorough assessment of its compliance with the Constitution, even if clauses affect national sovereignty.

● With the initial text:

○ The agreement would have been subject to strict control by the Constitutional Court before ratification.

○ Any provision deemed contrary to the Constitution (for example, an implicit transfer of sovereignty) would have blocked or delayed implementation.

○ This process would have given opponents legal tools to challenge the deal.

Key difference: The amended text allows for rapid and confidential negotiation, without requiring detailed constitutional analysis, making the agreement virtually incontestable upon signature.

Step 2: Simplified parliamentary validation (Article 93)

Scenario

Once the agreement was negotiated, Brice Oligui Nguema quickly introduced it to Parliament for validation. Sensitive details, such as clauses concerning the exclusive rights of American forces, were minimized in the discussions. Thanks to its majority in the National Assembly, the Executive obtained a favorable vote within a few days. The procedure was conducted discreetly to avoid a popular mobilization.

● With the modified text:

○ Article 93 limits the cases in which Congress (meeting of both houses) can be convened.

○ Oligui Nguema can avoid a public debate, ratifying the agreement by a simple law adopted by the National Assembly.

○ Discussions within Parliament are controlled and restricted, limiting the risk of criticism.

● With the initial text:

○ Congress would have been convened to debate the deal.

○ This public debate would have allowed opponents to expose the controversial aspects of the agreement, attracting the attention of the population and the media.

○ The National Assembly and the Senate could have requested amendments or refused ratification.

Key difference: The amended text makes it possible to neutralize parliamentary counter-powers, limiting debates and speeding up validation.

Step 3: Accelerated implementation through exceptional powers (Article 63)

Scenario

To justify the rapid installation of the base, Brice Oligui Nguema declared a security emergency. By invoking serious threats, such as a rise in regional tensions or internal unrest, he activated the exceptional powers provided for by the Constitution. These measures allowed him to order the allocation of strategic land and to expropriate certain areas without going through the usual procedures.

● With the modified text:

○ Article 63 provides the President with exceptional powers to act unilaterally in the event of a serious threat.

○ This allows Oligui Nguema to speed up administrative procedures (allocation of land, installation of infrastructure) without parliamentary or local consultation.

○ Opponents or citizens impacted by these decisions do not have any immediate recourse.

● With the initial text:

○ The activation of exceptional powers required prior consultation with the Constitutional Court and the Presidents of the two chambers.

○ The measures taken would have been limited in scope and subject to institutional supervision.

○ Any action deemed disproportionate could have been challenged.

Key difference: The amended text gives almost total autonomy to the Executive in times of emergency, eliminating the consultation or control steps provided for in the initial text.

Step 4: Reducing future challenges through Article 168

Scenario

After the installation of the base, some clauses of the agreement aroused criticism, particularly with regard to Gabonese sovereignty or the disproportionate economic advantages granted to the United States. To prevent any legal or institutional challenge, Oligui Nguema modified certain constitutional provisions, aligning the legal framework with the terms of the agreement.

● With the modified text:

○ Article 168, combined with Article 63, allows the Constitution to be revised during periods of exceptional powers.

○ The amendments necessary to retroactively validate the agreement can be adopted quickly, without public debate.

○ This eliminates any risk of future challenge before the Constitutional Court.

● With the initial text:

○ Constitutional revision was prohibited in the event of parliamentary dissolution, limiting the Executive's ability to modify texts to justify controversial decisions.

○ Any attempt at change would have required a lengthy and transparent process, including public debate and broad consultation.

Key difference: The amended text provides increased legal flexibility, allowing the Constitution to be adapted to the needs of the Executive. The original text would have imposed safeguards preventing such opportunistic revisions.

Step 5: Consolidation of power through American support

Scenario

With the installation of the base, Oligui Nguema benefits from strategic support from the United States. Washington provides diplomatic support to protect the regime from international criticism and offers economic and military assistance to strengthen the control of the power in place. This agreement, although presented as beneficial for regional security, becomes a lever to prolong the transition and neutralize internal opponents.

● With the modified text:

○ The constitutional amendments (articles 164, 93, and 63) allow Oligui Nguema to secure the agreement quickly and discreetly, limiting the possibilities of popular or institutional mobilization against this project.

○ Economic and military aid strengthens the regime's repressive apparatus, consolidating its control.

● With the initial text:

○ The process would have been much longer and exposed to legal, parliamentary, and popular challenges.

○ The checks and balances would have limited Oligui Nguema's ability to fully exploit this agreement to consolidate his power.

Key difference: The amended text transforms a complex and transparent process into a rapid and centralized operation, making Oligui Nguema's maneuvers more effective.

Conclusion: A credible and strategic scenario

With the constitutional amendments, Brice Oligui Nguema can negotiate, ratify, and implement an agreement for the installation of a U.S. military base quickly and discreetly. These changes allow him to bypass institutional safeguards, neutralize checks and balances, and secure strategic support to prolong the transition. Under the original text, such projects would have been significantly slowed or hampered by more robust legal and institutional controls.